天津無縫鋼管何時能回暖?
本周(3.23—3.27)天津無縫鋼管價格支撐乏力，部分規格小幅下滑。受上周管坯價格下跌及山東部分管廠出廠價下調影響，周初開市本地無縫鋼管市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)商家心態即(ji)顯(xian)不穩，但大多仍是持(chi)穩觀(guan)望(wang)。周中至周后期，市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)弱勢跡象(xiang)愈(yu)加(jia)明顯(xian)，部分商家因(yin)月(yue)底(di)資(zi)金壓(ya)力獲利套現的(de)心理而采取降價出(chu)貨的(de)策略，使(shi)得市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)拉漲的(de)氛圍終(zhong)結(jie)，低價資(zi)源不斷(duan)(duan)涌現。總(zong)體看(kan)來，本周天津無(wu)縫鋼管(guan)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)弱勢還是占(zhan)據主導(dao)態勢，主流商家的(de)悲觀(guan)情緒不斷(duan)(duan)增強(qiang)，觀(guan)望(wang)氛圍也(ye)變得愈(yu)加(jia)濃(nong)重，后期形勢堪憂。
對于(yu)本地(di)無縫鋼管市場(chang)的后期(qi)走(zou)勢，應結合(he)以(yi)下因素進行分析。
1、市場方面：海(hai)外疫(yi)情蔓延(yan)、金融(rong)市場動蕩導致市場信心轉(zhuan)弱，鋼材短期(qi)供大于求現(xian)象(xiang)仍(reng)然嚴重，后期(qi)價格走勢不容樂(le)觀。
2、管坯方(fang)面：本地熱軋管坯價(jia)格暫穩，現天鋼產20#Φ50-75mm價(jia)格為3680元，與上周同期價(jia)格持平(ping)。原料支撐力度不(bu)減，后期天津(jin)無縫鋼管下行空間不(bu)大(da)。
3、宏觀方面：國內復(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率(lv)快速(su)回升，截至上周(zhou)末，1.1萬個(ge)重(zhong)點(dian)項(xiang)(xiang)目復(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率(lv)為(wei)89.1%。其中重(zhong)大(da)鐵(tie)路項(xiang)(xiang)目已(yi)(yi)基本復(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong);重(zhong)大(da)公(gong)路、水運(yun)項(xiang)(xiang)目復(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率(lv)為(wei)97%;機(ji)場項(xiang)(xiang)目復(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率(lv)為(wei)87%;重(zhong)大(da)水利工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程復(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率(lv)為(wei)86%。這些(xie)涉(she)及鋼材(cai)使(shi)用量大(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)項(xiang)(xiang)目，復(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率(lv)已(yi)(yi)經超(chao)過了86%，距離全(quan)面的(de)(de)(de)(de)復(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)已(yi)(yi)經指日可待(dai)。隨著(zhu)復(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)快速(su)回升，下游的(de)(de)(de)(de)鋼材(cai)需求(qiu)量正在穩步提(ti)升，將(jiang)有利緩解(jie)后期(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)供(gong)需壓力。
后(hou)期(qi)來看(kan)，在(zai)需求(qiu)逐步恢(hui)復的(de)情況下，再加上(shang)(shang)大基建等政策利好(hao)的(de)影響，長遠來看(kan)大家對(dui)后(hou)市還是(shi)比較看(kan)好(hao)的(de)。不(bu)過(guo)受到海外疫(yi)情以及全(quan)球(qiu)經濟滑坡的(de)影響，短期(qi)內(nei)天津無(wu)縫鋼管向好(hao)走勢節奏(zou)上(shang)(shang)將(jiang)有(you)所放緩，預計下周天津無(wu)縫鋼管走勢仍將(jiang)震(zhen)蕩(dang)盤(pan)整。
